Jon Ralston, editor of The Nevada Independent and renowned for his accurate political predictions in Nevada, has projected a narrow win for Kamala Harris in the battleground state. Ralston, known for his successful forecasts in past elections—including the 2022 Nevada gubernatorial race and the 2020 presidential election—estimates Harris will secure 48.5% of the vote, narrowly surpassing former President Donald Trump’s 48.2%.
Historically, Democrats have held an early voting advantage in Nevada, particularly in Clark County, where a “firewall” of Democratic voters has traditionally boosted their lead. This election cycle, however, saw Republicans returning over 45% of early ballots, a shift Ralston called “remarkable.” Meanwhile, Democrats contributed only 27.7% of early votes, with independents and other party affiliates rounding out the rest. To secure the state, Harris will need to rely on mail-in ballots arriving in Clark County and a strong in-person turnout on Election Day.
Nevada’s seven electoral votes are pivotal for both campaigns, with each candidate needing to secure Nevada plus one additional toss-up state—such as Pennsylvania, North Carolina, or Georgia—to clinch the election. Ralston has also predicted a win for incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen over her Republican challenger, Sam Brown, aligning with recent polling that shows Rosen maintaining a lead.
Ralston’s predictions echo those of respected pollster J. Ann Selzer, who recently projected Harris leading in Iowa by three points, a state where Trump has historically shown strength. Both Ralston and Selzer have a reputation for accuracy, adding weight to the projection of a close race in Nevada that could tip the scales in Harris’s favor.
