More than 62 million US voters have already cast their ballots in the 2024 election, breaking records in some states and leading both sides to hope it gives them an edge — even as experts warn the data is difficult to interpret.
Opinion polls show Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump running neck-and-neck, including in the seven battleground states likely to decide the national vote.
Harris’s campaign has encouraged early voting, with her running mate Tim Walz, outgoing President Joe Biden and former president Barack Obama all having already cast their ballots.
Trump had earlier cast skepticism — without proof — over the fairness of early voting, but has since embraced it, encouraging his supporters to cast ballots whenever suits them.
As of Thursday, at least 62.7 million people had cast votes early, accounting for almost 40 percent of the total vote count in 2020.
In Georgia, for example, more than 3.5 million people had voted, or 45 percent of registered voters — a record, according to Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.
He added that he expected up to 70 percent of Georgians to vote early in this election.
The situation is similar in several other swing states.
Brad Hines, a 73-year-old police officer, lined up to cast his ballot in-person on the first day of early voting in Wisconsin.
“I wanted to get in and get my vote done and then let everybody else know that they should do the same thing,” he said, adding that it was an “important election” for the state of “democracy.”
“After 2020, states really strengthened and improved early voting processes,” said Julian Zelizer, a professor at Princeton University.
The high number of early votes helps campaigns focus their efforts as Election Day nears, said Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who is closely monitoring early voting.
“Every one of these early voters is somebody that they scratch off their lists, and every voter they scratch off their lists, they don’t have to contact that person anymore,” he said on a podcast.
He warned, however, that it was difficult to make projections at this stage. According to figures for six states compiled by his laboratory — Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Michigan, North Carolina and Virginia — women represent around 55 percent of the early vote, compared with 45 percent for men. The Democratic Party will hope that gives their candidate an edge, with opinion polls showing Harris has a marked lead with women.
