In the world of open-source intelligence, all eyes now are on whether US Air Force B-2 bombers will be heading back to the Indian Ocean military base of Diego Garcia.
The Spirits, as they are known, were there earlier this year in support of US operations against Houthi targets in Yemen.
These are the stealth bombers, based at Whiteman Air Force base in Missouri, that are capable of dropping the feared GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a huge precision-guided bomb said to be able to destroy targets 200ft underground. It is the biggest “bunker buster” around.
It’s the only type of munition that can really get to the Fordo nuclear site in Iran, which so far appears to have been untouched in Israeli air strikes.
The GBU-57 weighs a shade under 30,000lbs and contains some 5,300lb of explosive. Its thickened outer casing and delay fusing allow it to detonate sufficiently long after burying itself deep in the ground.
A B-2 Spirit dropping a GBU-57 during a training mission in 2018
Israel has bunker busters of its own, but these are much lighter weapons that are not capable of reaching the depths of Fordo. And, anyway, Israel lacks the size of aircraft to be able to deploy the GBU-57.
So the question is not only whether the United States joins the military action, but whether it will use the MOP too.
